Domain economist Trent Wiltshire is expective good news for Brisbane property owners despite the doom and gloom being reported in the media.
Domain’s Property Price Forecasts report predicts house prices in Brisbane could increase by 4 per cent in 2019, then grow by a further 5 per cent in 2020.
It’s good news for the apartment market, too — unit prices are predicted to bottom out by early 2019 and then grow by about 3 per cent by the end of the year, and increase by another 3 per cent in 2020.
Domain economist Trent Wiltshire said after a tumultuous 12 months for Australia’s property markets, 2019 looked likely to be a year of greater stability across the nation, with Brisbane set to lead the charge.
“After modest price growth in recent years, we expect that Brisbane houses will grow faster than most other markets over the next couple of years,” Mr Wiltshire said.
“Our forecast for relatively strong house price growth in Brisbane is underpinned by a pick-up in population growth and declining unemployment.”
Mr Wiltshire said while his bullish forecast for Brisbane was good news for the property market, it would not precipitate a boom.
“It’s definitely looking more positive but I don’t want to overstate this into a property price boom,” he said.
“What it is is possibly a turnaround from a few years of falls and into some moderate price growth.”
Mr Wiltshire’s forecast is likely to be music to the ears of Brisbane real estate agents, who’ve held high hopes for a growth period following Sydney and Melbourne’s decline.
| House price forecasts* | |||
| 2018 (estimate) | 2019 (forecast) | 2020 (forecast) | |
| Australia (combined capitals) | -6% | 1% | 4% |
| Sydney | -8% | 0% | 4% |
| Melbourne | -9% | -1% | 4% |
| Brisbane | 0% | 4% | 5% |
| Perth | -5% | 5% | 3% |
| Adelaide | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Hobart | 12% | 2% | 2% |
| Canberra | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| * Annual change to December quarter
Notes: Darwin excluded from forecast due to small volumes and market volatility. Stratified median house price forecasts. |
|||
| Unit price forecasts* | |||
| 2018 (estimate) | 2019 (forecast) | 2020 (forecast) | |
| Australia (combined capitals) | -3% | 2% | 3% |
| Sydney | -3% | 3% | 5% |
| Melbourne | -1% | 1% | 1% |
| Brisbane | -6% | 3% | 3% |
| Perth | -6% | 2% | 2% |
| Adelaide | -1% | 2% | 2% |
| Hobart | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Canberra | -5% | 2% | 2% |
| * Annual change to December quarter
Notes: Darwin excluded from forecast due to small volumes and market volatility. Stratified median unit price forecasts. |
|||
Mr Wiltshire said the biggest threat to Brisbane’s property price growth for 2019 was lending conditions.
“The real risk is that the royal commission will come in and suggest even tighter lending conditions, which would push prices lower,” he said.
“On the other side, borrowers are going to have to adjust their own expectations and say ‘this is what I need to do to prove my income and expenses’. It will take a while for everyone to adjust to that but when they do, that will help support price growth.”
